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PROBORA

Market record

HYPE Up or Down · 5 Min

10:15 → 10:20 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled10:15 → 10:20 UTC

Market ID hype-5m-20261115-1015

Settled

Nov 15, 10:20:00 UTC

Price to beat

$68.425
Index at 10:15:00

Final index

$68.056

Settlement price

$68.056
Index at 10:20:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
67.92768.08768.24710:1510:1610:1710:1810:20PTB 68.425

Settlement $68.056

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN51.2%Low
UP 48.8%51.2% DOWN
Historical accuracy
52.9%
155 markets
Model version
meta-hype5-v1
published 10:15:07 UTC

Base consensus

7 / 9 DOWN

77.8% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 10:15:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN61.5%
UP 38.5%61.5% DOWN
Medium49.0%155 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN53.4%
UP 46.6%53.4% DOWN
Medium58.1%155 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN58.5%
UP 41.5%58.5% DOWN
Medium51.0%155 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN56.0%
UP 44.0%56.0% DOWN
Medium51.6%155 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN50.1%
UP 49.9%50.1% DOWN
Low51.0%155 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentUP55.4%
UP 55.4%44.6% DOWN
Medium50.3%155 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low46.5%155 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.4%
UP 49.6%50.4% DOWN
Low52.3%155 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentDOWN51.5%
UP 48.5%51.5% DOWN
Low51.0%155 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for HYPE: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 10:15:00 UTC

10:15:00 UTC
  • BybitUSDT→USD0.0 bps68.425ok
  • Hyperliquid−1.6 bps68.415ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.7 bps68.430ok
Median of 3 sources$68.425

Settlement · 10:20:00 UTC

10:20:00 UTC
  • BybitUSDT→USD0.0 bps68.056ok
  • Hyperliquid−3.9 bps68.030ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+1.8 bps68.068ok
Median of 3 sources$68.056

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min HYPE windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
10:10 → 10:15Nov 1568.54368.425DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.4%WIN
10:05 → 10:10Nov 1568.37768.543UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.8%LOSS
10:00 → 10:05Nov 1567.75368.377UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN70.1%LOSS
09:55 → 10:00Nov 1567.85967.753DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN69.1%WIN
09:50 → 09:55Nov 1567.81267.859UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN72.0%LOSS
09:45 → 09:50Nov 1568.10267.812DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.3%WIN
09:40 → 09:45Nov 1567.81368.102UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.8%LOSS
09:35 → 09:40Nov 1567.12367.813UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN69.1%LOSS
09:30 → 09:35Nov 1567.37167.123DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.7%WIN
09:25 → 09:30Nov 15——VOID—Insufficient Data
09:20 → 09:25Nov 1567.01466.912DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN66.6%WIN
09:15 → 09:20Nov 1567.30467.014DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.8%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on HYPE · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · HYPE 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Momentum Agent58.1%155 mkts
  2. 2Order Flow Agent51.0%155 mkts
  3. 3Whale Flow Agent51.0%155 mkts
  4. 4OI/Funding Agent52.3%155 mkts
  5. 5RSI Divergence Agent51.6%155 mkts
  6. 6Meta Agent52.9%155 mkts

About this market

Hyperliquid · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology