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PROBORA

Market record

HYPE Up or Down · 5 Min

09:20 → 09:25 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled09:20 → 09:25 UTC

Market ID hype-5m-20261115-0920

Settled

Nov 15, 09:25:00 UTC

Price to beat

$67.014
Index at 09:20:00

Final index

$66.912

Settlement price

$66.912
Index at 09:25:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
66.91767.05267.18767.32209:2009:2109:2209:2309:25PTB 67.014

Settlement $66.912

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN66.6%High
UP 33.4%66.6% DOWN
Historical accuracy
52.9%
138 markets
Model version
meta-hype5-v1
published 09:20:04 UTC

Base consensus

7 / 9 DOWN

77.8% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 09:20:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN64.3%
UP 35.7%64.3% DOWN
Medium49.3%138 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN55.9%
UP 44.1%55.9% DOWN
Medium58.7%138 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN54.3%
UP 45.7%54.3% DOWN
Medium51.4%138 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN55.5%
UP 44.5%55.5% DOWN
Medium50.7%138 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP50.4%
UP 50.4%49.6% DOWN
Low52.2%138 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN57.0%
UP 43.0%57.0% DOWN
Medium48.6%138 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low47.1%138 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low49.3%138 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentDOWN50.3%
UP 49.7%50.3% DOWN
Low50.7%138 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for HYPE: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 09:20:00 UTC

09:20:00 UTC
  • BybitUSDT→USD−0.9 bps67.008ok
  • Hyperliquid+4.2 bps67.042ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps67.014ok
Median of 3 sources$67.014

Settlement · 09:25:00 UTC

09:25:00 UTC
  • BybitUSDT→USD+0.4 bps66.915ok
  • Hyperliquid−1.5 bps66.902ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps66.912ok
Median of 3 sources$66.912

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min HYPE windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
09:15 → 09:20Nov 1567.30467.014DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.8%WIN
09:10 → 09:15Nov 1567.28767.304UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.4%LOSS
09:05 → 09:10Nov 1566.86467.287UP5 / 9 DOWNUP52.7%WIN
09:00 → 09:05Nov 1565.95166.864UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.4%LOSS
08:55 → 09:00Nov 1565.64865.951UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.7%LOSS
08:50 → 08:55Nov 1565.42065.648UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.9%LOSS
08:45 → 08:50Nov 1565.51065.420DOWN5 / 9 UPDOWN50.1%WIN
08:40 → 08:45Nov 1565.21065.510UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.0%LOSS
08:35 → 08:40Nov 1565.38465.210DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.2%WIN
08:30 → 08:35Nov 1565.39565.384DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.2%WIN
08:25 → 08:30Nov 1565.07065.395UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN50.4%LOSS
08:20 → 08:25Nov 1564.69165.070UP5 / 9 UPDOWN51.3%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on HYPE · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · HYPE 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Momentum Agent58.7%138 mkts
  2. 2Order Flow Agent52.2%138 mkts
  3. 3Whale Flow Agent50.7%138 mkts
  4. 4OI/Funding Agent49.3%138 mkts
  5. 5RSI Divergence Agent50.7%138 mkts
  6. 6Meta Agent52.9%138 mkts

About this market

Hyperliquid · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology