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PROBORA

Market record

HYPE Up or Down · 5 Min

08:45 → 08:50 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled08:45 → 08:50 UTC

Market ID hype-5m-20261115-0845

Settled

Nov 15, 08:50:00 UTC

Price to beat

$65.510
Index at 08:45:00

Final index

$65.420

Settlement price

$65.420
Index at 08:50:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
65.40765.60265.69908:4508:4608:4708:4808:50PTB 65.510

Settlement $65.420

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN50.1%Low
UP 49.9%50.1% DOWN
Historical accuracy
50.4%
127 markets
Model version
meta-hype5-v1
published 08:45:06 UTC

Base consensus

5 / 9 UP

55.6% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 08:45:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN55.9%
UP 44.1%55.9% DOWN
Medium48.8%127 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentUP53.5%
UP 53.5%46.5% DOWN
Medium56.7%127 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN57.4%
UP 42.6%57.4% DOWN
Medium51.2%127 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN54.2%
UP 45.8%54.2% DOWN
Medium48.8%127 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP50.8%
UP 50.8%49.2% DOWN
Low54.3%127 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN50.4%
UP 49.6%50.4% DOWN
Medium48.0%127 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low48.0%127 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Low47.2%127 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentUP51.8%
UP 51.8%48.2% DOWN
Low49.6%127 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for HYPE: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 08:45:00 UTC

08:45:00 UTC
  • BybitUSDT→USD0.0 bps65.510ok
  • Hyperliquid+0.0 bps65.511ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−1.5 bps65.500ok
Median of 3 sources$65.510

Settlement · 08:50:00 UTC

08:50:00 UTC
  • BybitUSDT→USD+5.2 bps65.453ok
  • Hyperliquid0.0 bps65.420ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.5 bps65.416ok
Median of 3 sources$65.420

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min HYPE windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
08:40 → 08:45Nov 1565.21065.510UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.0%LOSS
08:35 → 08:40Nov 1565.38465.210DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.2%WIN
08:30 → 08:35Nov 1565.39565.384DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.2%WIN
08:25 → 08:30Nov 1565.07065.395UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN50.4%LOSS
08:20 → 08:25Nov 1564.69165.070UP5 / 9 UPDOWN51.3%LOSS
08:15 → 08:20Nov 1564.75764.691DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.7%WIN
08:10 → 08:15Nov 1564.99964.757DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.4%WIN
08:05 → 08:10Nov 1564.96064.999UP8 / 9 DOWNUP50.7%WIN
08:00 → 08:05Nov 1564.93664.960UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.9%LOSS
07:55 → 08:00Nov 1564.83164.936UP5 / 9 DOWNUP56.0%WIN
07:50 → 07:55Nov 1564.70564.831UP5 / 9 DOWNUP55.4%WIN
07:45 → 07:50Nov 1564.76364.705DOWN5 / 9 DOWNUP50.7%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on HYPE · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · HYPE 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Momentum Agent56.7%127 mkts
  2. 2Order Flow Agent54.3%127 mkts
  3. 3Whale Flow Agent49.6%127 mkts
  4. 4Liquidation Agent48.0%127 mkts
  5. 5OI/Funding Agent47.2%127 mkts
  6. 6RSI Divergence Agent48.8%127 mkts

About this market

Hyperliquid · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology