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PROBORA

Market record

HYPE Up or Down · 5 Min

10:25 → 10:30 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled10:25 → 10:30 UTC

Market ID hype-5m-20261115-1025

Settled

Nov 15, 10:30:00 UTC

Price to beat

$68.016
Index at 10:25:00

Final index

$67.905

Settlement price

$67.905
Index at 10:30:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
67.87067.92367.97510:2510:2610:2710:2810:30PTB 68.016

Settlement $67.905

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN59.8%High
UP 40.2%59.8% DOWN
Historical accuracy
53.8%
160 markets
Model version
meta-hype5-v1
published 10:25:05 UTC

Base consensus

8 / 9 DOWN

88.9% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 10:25:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN54.4%
UP 45.6%54.4% DOWN
Medium48.8%160 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN53.3%
UP 46.7%53.3% DOWN
Medium58.8%160 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN50.6%
UP 49.4%50.6% DOWN
Medium51.2%160 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN53.2%
UP 46.8%53.2% DOWN
Medium51.2%160 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN50.3%
UP 49.7%50.3% DOWN
Low50.6%160 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN55.2%
UP 44.8%55.2% DOWN
Medium50.6%160 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low46.9%160 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.1%
UP 49.9%50.1% DOWN
Low51.9%160 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentDOWN51.7%
UP 48.3%51.7% DOWN
Low51.2%160 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for HYPE: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 10:25:00 UTC

10:25:00 UTC
  • BybitUSDT→USD−1.1 bps68.008ok
  • Hyperliquid0.0 bps68.016ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.9 bps68.022ok
Median of 3 sources$68.016

Settlement · 10:30:00 UTC

10:30:00 UTC
  • BybitUSDT→USD0.0 bps67.905ok
  • Hyperliquid−1.4 bps67.896ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+1.0 bps67.912ok
Median of 3 sources$67.905

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min HYPE windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
10:20 → 10:25Nov 1568.05668.016DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.0%WIN
10:15 → 10:20Nov 1568.42568.056DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.2%WIN
10:10 → 10:15Nov 1568.54368.425DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.4%WIN
10:05 → 10:10Nov 1568.37768.543UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.8%LOSS
10:00 → 10:05Nov 1567.75368.377UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN70.1%LOSS
09:55 → 10:00Nov 1567.85967.753DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN69.1%WIN
09:50 → 09:55Nov 1567.81267.859UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN72.0%LOSS
09:45 → 09:50Nov 1568.10267.812DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.3%WIN
09:40 → 09:45Nov 1567.81368.102UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.8%LOSS
09:35 → 09:40Nov 1567.12367.813UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN69.1%LOSS
09:30 → 09:35Nov 1567.37167.123DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.7%WIN
09:25 → 09:30Nov 15——VOID—Insufficient Data

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on HYPE · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · HYPE 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Momentum Agent58.8%160 mkts
  2. 2Whale Flow Agent51.2%160 mkts
  3. 3Order Flow Agent50.6%160 mkts
  4. 4OI/Funding Agent51.9%160 mkts
  5. 5RSI Divergence Agent51.2%160 mkts
  6. 6Meta Agent53.8%160 mkts

About this market

Hyperliquid · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology