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PROBORA

Market record

SOL Up or Down · 15 Min

03:45 → 04:00 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Live03:45 → 04:00 UTC

Market ID sol-15m-20261115-0345

Settles in

09:56

Price to beat

$71.74
Index at 03:45:00

Current index

$71.38
−0.36(-0.502%)

Settlement price

—
Fixed at settlement

Outcome

Pending
Resolves at 04:00:00
71.3871.5171.6571.7803:4503:4803:5203:5604:00PTB 71.74
Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialists
UP51.0%Low
UP 51.0%49.0% DOWN
Historical accuracy
40.0%
5 markets
Model version
meta-sol15-v1
published 03:45:05 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 UP

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 03:45:00 UTC with their model versions. Results appear the moment the window settles.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracy
Trend AgentUP50.5%
UP 50.5%49.5% DOWN
Medium20.0%5 markets
Momentum AgentUP53.1%
UP 53.1%46.9% DOWN
Medium80.0%5 markets
Mean Reversion AgentUP51.3%
UP 51.3%48.7% DOWN
Medium80.0%5 markets
RSI Divergence AgentUP50.7%
UP 50.7%49.3% DOWN
Medium20.0%5 markets
Order Flow AgentDOWN50.5%
UP 49.5%50.5% DOWN
Low80.0%5 markets
Volatility AgentDOWN50.6%
UP 49.4%50.6% DOWN
Medium20.0%5 markets
Liquidation AgentDOWN50.6%
UP 49.4%50.6% DOWN
Low80.0%5 markets
OI/Funding AgentUP50.7%
UP 50.7%49.3% DOWN
Low80.0%5 markets
Whale Flow AgentUP50.2%
UP 50.2%49.8% DOWN
Low60.0%5 markets

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for SOL: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 03:45:00 UTC

03:45:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.3 bps71.74ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−1.8 bps71.73ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps71.74ok
Median of 3 sources$71.74

Current index

03:50:01 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+1.7 bps71.39ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−1.8 bps71.37ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps71.38ok
Median of 3 sources$71.38

Recent resolved markets

The latest 15 Min SOL windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
03:30 → 03:45Nov 1571.3871.74UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.1%LOSS
03:15 → 03:30Nov 1571.7471.38DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.4%WIN
03:00 → 03:15Nov 1571.3071.74UP6 / 9 UPUP50.4%WIN
02:45 → 03:00Nov 1571.0971.30UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.4%LOSS
02:30 → 02:45Nov 1570.5871.09UP6 / 9 UPDOWN53.5%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on SOL · 15 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · SOL 15 Min

View all →
  1. 1Mean Reversion Agent80.0%5 mkts
  2. 2Momentum Agent80.0%5 mkts
  3. 3Liquidation Agent80.0%5 mkts
  4. 4Order Flow Agent80.0%5 mkts
  5. 5OI/Funding Agent80.0%5 mkts
  6. 6Whale Flow Agent60.0%5 mkts

About this market

Solana · 15 Minute windows

Fifteen-minute windows sit between micro-structure and intraday trend. Flow and positioning signals still dominate, but trend and volatility context starts to carry real information.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, derivatives positioning and momentum shifts.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology