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PROBORA

Market record

BNB Up or Down · 15 Min

04:30 → 04:45 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Live04:30 → 04:45 UTC

Market ID bnb-15m-20261115-0430

Settles in

08:38

Price to beat

$595.35
Index at 04:30:00

Current index

$595.10
−0.25(-0.042%)

Settlement price

—
Fixed at settlement

Outcome

Pending
Resolves at 04:45:00
594.65595.04595.8304:3004:3304:3704:4104:45PTB 595.35
Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialists
DOWN54.9%Medium
UP 45.1%54.9% DOWN
Historical accuracy
25.0%
8 markets
Model version
meta-bnb15-v1
published 04:30:07 UTC

Base consensus

5 / 9 DOWN

55.6% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 04:30:00 UTC with their model versions. Results appear the moment the window settles.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracy
Trend AgentDOWN51.8%
UP 48.2%51.8% DOWN
Medium25.0%8 markets
Momentum AgentUP50.9%
UP 50.9%49.1% DOWN
Medium50.0%8 markets
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN55.4%
UP 44.6%55.4% DOWN
Medium25.0%8 markets
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN55.3%
UP 44.7%55.3% DOWN
Medium25.0%8 markets
Order Flow AgentUP52.5%
UP 52.5%47.5% DOWN
Low50.0%8 markets
Volatility AgentUP50.2%
UP 50.2%49.8% DOWN
Medium87.5%8 markets
Liquidation AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low75.0%8 markets
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low75.0%8 markets
Whale Flow AgentDOWN50.1%
UP 49.9%50.1% DOWN
Low37.5%8 markets

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BNB: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 04:30:00 UTC

04:30:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps595.35ok
  • BybitUSDT→USD+0.8 bps595.39ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−1.4 bps595.26ok
Median of 3 sources$595.35

Current index

04:36:21 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps595.10ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+1.8 bps595.21ok
  • BybitUSDT→USD−0.6 bps595.07ok
Median of 3 sources$595.10

Recent resolved markets

The latest 15 Min BNB windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
04:15 → 04:30Nov 15594.68595.35UP6 / 9 UPDOWN52.0%LOSS
04:00 → 04:15Nov 15593.95594.68UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.9%LOSS
03:45 → 04:00Nov 15595.35593.95DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.9%WIN
03:30 → 03:45Nov 15594.13595.35UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.3%LOSS
03:15 → 03:30Nov 15596.05594.13DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.0%WIN
03:00 → 03:15Nov 15593.61596.05UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.7%LOSS
02:45 → 03:00Nov 15591.03593.61UP5 / 9 UPDOWN59.3%LOSS
02:30 → 02:45Nov 15588.32591.03UP6 / 9 UPDOWN59.5%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BNB · 15 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BNB 15 Min

View all →
  1. 1Volatility Agent87.5%8 mkts
  2. 2Liquidation Agent75.0%8 mkts
  3. 3OI/Funding Agent75.0%8 mkts
  4. 4Momentum Agent50.0%8 mkts
  5. 5Order Flow Agent50.0%8 mkts
  6. 6Whale Flow Agent37.5%8 mkts

About this market

BNB · 15 Minute windows

Fifteen-minute windows sit between micro-structure and intraday trend. Flow and positioning signals still dominate, but trend and volatility context starts to carry real information.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, derivatives positioning and momentum shifts.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology