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PROBORA

Market record

HYPE Up or Down · 5 Min

04:55 → 05:00 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled04:55 → 05:00 UTC

Market ID hype-5m-20261115-0455

Settled

Nov 15, 05:00:00 UTC

Price to beat

$66.191
Index at 04:55:00

Final index

$65.888

Settlement price

$65.888
Index at 05:00:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
65.86365.96866.07404:5504:5604:5704:5805:00PTB 66.191

Settlement $65.888

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN64.7%High
UP 35.3%64.7% DOWN
Historical accuracy
48.0%
50 markets
Model version
meta-hype5-v1
published 04:55:04 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 04:55:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN56.8%
UP 43.2%56.8% DOWN
Medium46.0%50 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN55.4%
UP 44.6%55.4% DOWN
Medium58.0%50 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN62.9%
UP 37.1%62.9% DOWN
Medium48.0%50 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN54.9%
UP 45.1%54.9% DOWN
Medium48.0%50 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP50.6%
UP 50.6%49.4% DOWN
Low56.0%50 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN57.2%
UP 42.8%57.2% DOWN
Medium40.0%50 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low56.0%50 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.2%
UP 49.8%50.2% DOWN
Low48.0%50 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentUP51.5%
UP 51.5%48.5% DOWN
Low50.0%50 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for HYPE: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 04:55:00 UTC

04:55:00 UTC
  • OKXUSDT→USD+1.8 bps66.203ok
  • BybitUSDT→USD0.0 bps66.191ok
  • Hyperliquid−3.6 bps66.167ok
Median of 3 sources$66.191

Settlement · 05:00:00 UTC

05:00:00 UTC
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.2 bps65.889ok
  • BybitUSDT→USD0.0 bps65.888ok
  • Hyperliquid−1.6 bps65.878ok
Median of 3 sources$65.888

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min HYPE windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
04:50 → 04:55Nov 1566.15266.191UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.9%LOSS
04:45 → 04:50Nov 1565.93166.152UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.0%LOSS
04:40 → 04:45Nov 1566.04465.931DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.1%WIN
04:35 → 04:40Nov 1566.30266.044DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.6%WIN
04:30 → 04:35Nov 1566.36266.302DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.6%WIN
04:25 → 04:30Nov 1566.26266.362UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.9%LOSS
04:20 → 04:25Nov 1566.12266.262UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.7%LOSS
04:15 → 04:20Nov 1566.17166.122DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN50.7%WIN
04:10 → 04:15Nov 1565.69866.171UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.7%LOSS
04:05 → 04:10Nov 1565.81465.698DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.7%WIN
04:00 → 04:05Nov 1566.12065.814DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.6%WIN
03:55 → 04:00Nov 1566.06166.120UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.2%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on HYPE · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · HYPE 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Momentum Agent58.0%50 mkts
  2. 2Liquidation Agent56.0%50 mkts
  3. 3Order Flow Agent56.0%50 mkts
  4. 4Whale Flow Agent50.0%50 mkts
  5. 5OI/Funding Agent48.0%50 mkts
  6. 6RSI Divergence Agent48.0%50 mkts

About this market

Hyperliquid · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology