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PROBORA

Market record

HYPE Up or Down · 5 Min

04:05 → 04:10 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled04:05 → 04:10 UTC

Market ID hype-5m-20261115-0405

Settled

Nov 15, 04:10:00 UTC

Price to beat

$65.814
Index at 04:05:00

Final index

$65.698

Settlement price

$65.698
Index at 04:10:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
65.70365.89665.99204:0504:0604:0704:0804:10PTB 65.814

Settlement $65.698

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN58.7%High
UP 41.3%58.7% DOWN
Historical accuracy
42.4%
33 markets
Model version
meta-hype5-v1
published 04:05:04 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 04:05:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN52.8%
UP 47.2%52.8% DOWN
Medium42.4%33 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN55.8%
UP 44.2%55.8% DOWN
Medium54.5%33 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentUP54.3%
UP 54.3%45.7% DOWN
Medium48.5%33 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN52.3%
UP 47.7%52.3% DOWN
Medium45.5%33 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN51.7%
UP 48.3%51.7% DOWN
Low60.6%33 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN53.4%
UP 46.6%53.4% DOWN
Medium39.4%33 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low57.6%33 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.3%
UP 49.7%50.3% DOWN
Low45.5%33 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentUP51.6%
UP 51.6%48.4% DOWN
Low54.5%33 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for HYPE: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 04:05:00 UTC

04:05:00 UTC
  • BybitUSDT→USD0.0 bps65.814ok
  • Hyperliquid−5.4 bps65.779ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+3.0 bps65.834ok
Median of 3 sources$65.814

Settlement · 04:10:00 UTC

04:10:00 UTC
  • BybitUSDT→USD0.0 bps65.698ok
  • Hyperliquid−2.9 bps65.679ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.9 bps65.704ok
Median of 3 sources$65.698

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min HYPE windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
04:00 → 04:05Nov 1566.12065.814DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.6%WIN
03:55 → 04:00Nov 1566.06166.120UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.2%LOSS
03:50 → 03:55Nov 1566.28966.061DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN69.0%WIN
03:45 → 03:50Nov 1566.19366.289UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.4%LOSS
03:40 → 03:45Nov 1565.93966.193UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.8%LOSS
03:35 → 03:40Nov 1565.87465.939UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.1%LOSS
03:30 → 03:35Nov 1566.09565.874DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.6%WIN
03:25 → 03:30Nov 1566.31366.095DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.3%WIN
03:20 → 03:25Nov 1566.47966.313DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.6%WIN
03:15 → 03:20Nov 1566.26066.479UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.9%LOSS
03:10 → 03:15Nov 1566.21866.260UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.5%LOSS
03:05 → 03:10Nov 1566.14766.218UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.6%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on HYPE · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · HYPE 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent60.6%33 mkts
  2. 2Liquidation Agent57.6%33 mkts
  3. 3Whale Flow Agent54.5%33 mkts
  4. 4Momentum Agent54.5%33 mkts
  5. 5OI/Funding Agent45.5%33 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent48.5%33 mkts

About this market

Hyperliquid · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology