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PROBORA

Market record

HYPE Up or Down · 5 Min

04:10 → 04:15 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled04:10 → 04:15 UTC

Market ID hype-5m-20261115-0410

Settled

Nov 15, 04:15:00 UTC

Price to beat

$65.698
Index at 04:10:00

Final index

$66.171

Settlement price

$66.171
Index at 04:15:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
65.86666.01866.16904:1004:1104:1204:1304:15PTB 65.698

Settlement $66.171

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN57.7%Medium
UP 42.3%57.7% DOWN
Historical accuracy
41.2%
34 markets
Model version
meta-hype5-v1
published 04:10:04 UTC

Base consensus

5 / 9 DOWN

55.6% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 04:10:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN50.4%
UP 49.6%50.4% DOWN
Medium41.2%34 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN50.5%
UP 49.5%50.5% DOWN
Medium52.9%34 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentUP50.8%
UP 50.8%49.2% DOWN
Medium47.1%34 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentUP59.8%
UP 59.8%40.2% DOWN
Medium44.1%34 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN51.7%
UP 48.3%51.7% DOWN
Low58.8%34 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN58.1%
UP 41.9%58.1% DOWN
Medium38.2%34 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low58.8%34 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.3%
UP 49.7%50.3% DOWN
Low44.1%34 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentUP50.3%
UP 50.3%49.7% DOWN
Low55.9%34 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for HYPE: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 04:10:00 UTC

04:10:00 UTC
  • BybitUSDT→USD0.0 bps65.698ok
  • Hyperliquid−2.9 bps65.679ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.9 bps65.704ok
Median of 3 sources$65.698

Settlement · 04:15:00 UTC

04:15:00 UTC
  • BybitUSDT→USD0.0 bps66.171ok
  • Hyperliquid−5.3 bps66.136ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+2.6 bps66.188ok
Median of 3 sources$66.171

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min HYPE windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
04:05 → 04:10Nov 1565.81465.698DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.7%WIN
04:00 → 04:05Nov 1566.12065.814DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.6%WIN
03:55 → 04:00Nov 1566.06166.120UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.2%LOSS
03:50 → 03:55Nov 1566.28966.061DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN69.0%WIN
03:45 → 03:50Nov 1566.19366.289UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.4%LOSS
03:40 → 03:45Nov 1565.93966.193UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.8%LOSS
03:35 → 03:40Nov 1565.87465.939UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.1%LOSS
03:30 → 03:35Nov 1566.09565.874DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.6%WIN
03:25 → 03:30Nov 1566.31366.095DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.3%WIN
03:20 → 03:25Nov 1566.47966.313DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.6%WIN
03:15 → 03:20Nov 1566.26066.479UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.9%LOSS
03:10 → 03:15Nov 1566.21866.260UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.5%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on HYPE · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · HYPE 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent58.8%34 mkts
  2. 2Order Flow Agent58.8%34 mkts
  3. 3Whale Flow Agent55.9%34 mkts
  4. 4Momentum Agent52.9%34 mkts
  5. 5OI/Funding Agent44.1%34 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent47.1%34 mkts

About this market

Hyperliquid · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology