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PROBORA

Market record

HYPE Up or Down · 5 Min

04:25 → 04:30 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled04:25 → 04:30 UTC

Market ID hype-5m-20261115-0425

Settled

Nov 15, 04:30:00 UTC

Price to beat

$66.262
Index at 04:25:00

Final index

$66.362

Settlement price

$66.362
Index at 04:30:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
66.29766.34266.38704:2504:2604:2704:2804:30PTB 66.262

Settlement $66.362

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN64.9%High
UP 35.1%64.9% DOWN
Historical accuracy
45.0%
40 markets
Model version
meta-hype5-v1
published 04:25:04 UTC

Base consensus

7 / 9 DOWN

77.8% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 04:25:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN58.3%
UP 41.7%58.3% DOWN
Medium42.5%40 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN55.0%
UP 45.0%55.0% DOWN
Medium55.0%40 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN54.6%
UP 45.4%54.6% DOWN
Medium50.0%40 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN55.4%
UP 44.6%55.4% DOWN
Medium45.0%40 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Low57.5%40 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN57.3%
UP 42.7%57.3% DOWN
Medium40.0%40 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low57.5%40 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.1%
UP 49.9%50.1% DOWN
Low45.0%40 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentDOWN50.1%
UP 49.9%50.1% DOWN
Low50.0%40 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for HYPE: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 04:25:00 UTC

04:25:00 UTC
  • BybitUSDT→USD+2.0 bps66.275ok
  • Hyperliquid−0.9 bps66.257ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps66.262ok
Median of 3 sources$66.262

Settlement · 04:30:00 UTC

04:30:00 UTC
  • BybitUSDT→USD0.0 bps66.362ok
  • Hyperliquid−2.9 bps66.344ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+2.9 bps66.381ok
Median of 3 sources$66.362

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min HYPE windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
04:20 → 04:25Nov 1566.12266.262UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.7%LOSS
04:15 → 04:20Nov 1566.17166.122DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN50.7%WIN
04:10 → 04:15Nov 1565.69866.171UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.7%LOSS
04:05 → 04:10Nov 1565.81465.698DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.7%WIN
04:00 → 04:05Nov 1566.12065.814DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.6%WIN
03:55 → 04:00Nov 1566.06166.120UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.2%LOSS
03:50 → 03:55Nov 1566.28966.061DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN69.0%WIN
03:45 → 03:50Nov 1566.19366.289UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.4%LOSS
03:40 → 03:45Nov 1565.93966.193UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.8%LOSS
03:35 → 03:40Nov 1565.87465.939UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.1%LOSS
03:30 → 03:35Nov 1566.09565.874DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.6%WIN
03:25 → 03:30Nov 1566.31366.095DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.3%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on HYPE · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · HYPE 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent57.5%40 mkts
  2. 2Order Flow Agent57.5%40 mkts
  3. 3Whale Flow Agent50.0%40 mkts
  4. 4Momentum Agent55.0%40 mkts
  5. 5OI/Funding Agent45.0%40 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent50.0%40 mkts

About this market

Hyperliquid · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology