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PROBORA

Market record

HYPE Up or Down · 5 Min

10:40 → 10:45 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled10:40 → 10:45 UTC

Market ID hype-5m-20261115-1040

Settled

Nov 15, 10:45:00 UTC

Price to beat

$68.057
Index at 10:40:00

Final index

$68.106

Settlement price

$68.106
Index at 10:45:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
67.98868.03368.07968.12410:4010:4110:4210:4310:45PTB 68.057

Settlement $68.106

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN64.0%High
UP 36.0%64.0% DOWN
Historical accuracy
53.3%
165 markets
Model version
meta-hype5-v1
published 10:40:04 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 10:40:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN54.4%
UP 45.6%54.4% DOWN
Medium47.9%165 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN53.8%
UP 46.2%53.8% DOWN
Medium58.2%165 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN59.1%
UP 40.9%59.1% DOWN
Medium50.3%165 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN53.8%
UP 46.2%53.8% DOWN
Medium50.9%165 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentUP52.6%
UP 52.6%47.4% DOWN
Low49.7%165 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN59.9%
UP 40.1%59.9% DOWN
Medium50.3%165 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low47.3%165 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.1%
UP 49.9%50.1% DOWN
Low51.5%165 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentUP50.8%
UP 50.8%49.2% DOWN
Low49.7%165 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for HYPE: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 10:40:00 UTC

10:40:00 UTC
  • BybitUSDT→USD0.0 bps68.057ok
  • Hyperliquid−2.5 bps68.041ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+1.3 bps68.066ok
Median of 3 sources$68.057

Settlement · 10:45:00 UTC

10:45:00 UTC
  • BybitUSDT→USD0.0 bps68.106ok
  • Hyperliquid−2.0 bps68.093ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+2.8 bps68.125ok
Median of 3 sources$68.106

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min HYPE windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
10:35 → 10:40Nov 1567.95368.057UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.5%LOSS
10:30 → 10:35Nov 1567.90567.953UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN66.4%LOSS
10:25 → 10:30Nov 1568.01667.905DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.8%WIN
10:20 → 10:25Nov 1568.05668.016DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.0%WIN
10:15 → 10:20Nov 1568.42568.056DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.2%WIN
10:10 → 10:15Nov 1568.54368.425DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.4%WIN
10:05 → 10:10Nov 1568.37768.543UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.8%LOSS
10:00 → 10:05Nov 1567.75368.377UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN70.1%LOSS
09:55 → 10:00Nov 1567.85967.753DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN69.1%WIN
09:50 → 09:55Nov 1567.81267.859UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN72.0%LOSS
09:45 → 09:50Nov 1568.10267.812DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.3%WIN
09:40 → 09:45Nov 1567.81368.102UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.8%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on HYPE · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · HYPE 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Momentum Agent58.2%165 mkts
  2. 2OI/Funding Agent51.5%165 mkts
  3. 3Order Flow Agent49.7%165 mkts
  4. 4Whale Flow Agent49.7%165 mkts
  5. 5RSI Divergence Agent50.9%165 mkts
  6. 6Meta Agent53.3%165 mkts

About this market

Hyperliquid · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology