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PROBORA

Market record

HYPE Up or Down · 5 Min

10:45 → 10:50 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled10:45 → 10:50 UTC

Market ID hype-5m-20261115-1045

Settled

Nov 15, 10:50:00 UTC

Price to beat

$68.106
Index at 10:45:00

Final index

$67.898

Settlement price

$67.898
Index at 10:50:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
67.89067.95968.02910:4510:4610:4710:4810:50PTB 68.106

Settlement $67.898

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN65.9%High
UP 34.1%65.9% DOWN
Historical accuracy
53.3%
167 markets
Model version
meta-hype5-v1
published 10:45:07 UTC

Base consensus

7 / 9 DOWN

77.8% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 10:45:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN56.0%
UP 44.0%56.0% DOWN
Medium47.9%167 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN56.1%
UP 43.9%56.1% DOWN
Medium58.1%167 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN51.4%
UP 48.6%51.4% DOWN
Medium50.3%167 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN54.2%
UP 45.8%54.2% DOWN
Medium50.9%167 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP50.4%
UP 50.4%49.6% DOWN
Low49.7%167 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN59.2%
UP 40.8%59.2% DOWN
Medium49.7%167 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low47.3%167 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.2%
UP 49.8%50.2% DOWN
Low51.5%167 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentDOWN50.6%
UP 49.4%50.6% DOWN
Low49.7%167 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for HYPE: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 10:45:00 UTC

10:45:00 UTC
  • BybitUSDT→USD0.0 bps68.106ok
  • Hyperliquid−2.0 bps68.093ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+2.8 bps68.125ok
Median of 3 sources$68.106

Settlement · 10:50:00 UTC

10:50:00 UTC
  • BybitUSDT→USD+1.2 bps67.906ok
  • Hyperliquid−1.8 bps67.886ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps67.898ok
Median of 3 sources$67.898

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min HYPE windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
10:40 → 10:45Nov 1568.05768.106UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.0%LOSS
10:35 → 10:40Nov 1567.95368.057UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.5%LOSS
10:30 → 10:35Nov 1567.90567.953UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN66.4%LOSS
10:25 → 10:30Nov 1568.01667.905DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.8%WIN
10:20 → 10:25Nov 1568.05668.016DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.0%WIN
10:15 → 10:20Nov 1568.42568.056DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.2%WIN
10:10 → 10:15Nov 1568.54368.425DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.4%WIN
10:05 → 10:10Nov 1568.37768.543UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.8%LOSS
10:00 → 10:05Nov 1567.75368.377UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN70.1%LOSS
09:55 → 10:00Nov 1567.85967.753DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN69.1%WIN
09:50 → 09:55Nov 1567.81267.859UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN72.0%LOSS
09:45 → 09:50Nov 1568.10267.812DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.3%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on HYPE · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · HYPE 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Momentum Agent58.1%167 mkts
  2. 2OI/Funding Agent51.5%167 mkts
  3. 3Order Flow Agent49.7%167 mkts
  4. 4Whale Flow Agent49.7%167 mkts
  5. 5RSI Divergence Agent50.9%167 mkts
  6. 6Liquidation Agent47.3%167 mkts

About this market

Hyperliquid · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology